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| On Wednesday, August 13 2025, the ASX fell 54 points to finish at 8827. This is after hitting a new all-time high yesterday, closing at 8880.80. This is the 14th ATH in 2025. Today, CBA released their results, which were $10bn profit and a slight increase in the dividend; however, this wasn’t enough for the market, which had previously pushed the price to a point where CBA is the most expensive bank in the world. CBA fell 5.4%, taking the other banks with it. As we have noted for some time, the banks are trading well above the analysts’ forecasts, so we are not surprised by the pullback today. The turnover in CBA shares was a large $750m, one of the year’s largest trading days. We will see what the analyst says tomorrow, with all six having SELL recommendations. In this reporting season, we’ve seen several stocks take a hit once they delivered their results. Over the last week, on releasing results, QBE fell 8%, Computershare (CPU) fell 4%, AGL fell 12%, JB HiFi (JBH) fell 8% & CBA fell 5.4%. This would suggest that if the company doesn’t deliver above expectations, you could see some selling, especially as valuations are at the higher end of normal. As suggested last month, the market might be switching from banks to resources. Since 30/6, CBA down 8% and Aust Bank ETF (MVB) down 4% while BHP up 13%, Woodside (WDS) up 13%, RIO 10% and Aust Resources ETF (MVR) up 10%. US markets have taken the uptick in inflation well, as it’s not as bad as feared and it could allow the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates next month. The RBA cut rates yesterday in Australia to 3.6% with the likelihood of more to come. We will likely see more volatility in the coming weeks. We are happy for you to share our Not So Daily Bulletin with family and friends, and if we can help them, we are also happy to chat. |
| RBA Interest Rates As predicted by Kevin “interest rate whisperer” Hanson, the RBA cut interest rates by 0.25% to 3.6%. The RBA sees inflation running around target, but has revised its growth forecasts down again. Its forecasts assume that the cash rate will continue to “follow a gradual easing path,” implying that without further easing, growth and inflation will be lower and unemployment higher. AMP’s Shane Oliver expects the RBA to cut again in November, February, and May, taking the cash rate to 2.85%. The ongoing rate-cutting cycle should help underpin a modest increase in Australian economic growth to around 1.8%yoy by year-end, but with the tariff threat posing some downside risk. The media tends to focus on the benefits or costs for mortgagees when interest rates move. However, only 35% of Australian households have a mortgage. 32% have no mortgage, and 33% rent. While an interest rate cut is suitable for those who have debt, there is never any commentary on how a saver just took a drop in their income, as they will receive less interest. |
| US Inflation & Tariffs US inflation results released last night were as expected. Headline was up 0.2% or 2.7% over the year, and the more important CORE was up 0.3% or 3.1% over the year. While this sees inflation moving up and above the 2% target from the US Federal Reserve, the market thinks it’s low enough for the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at the next meeting on September 17. The main inflation component has been services (blue), which has moved sideways for the last couple of months, while goods inflation (green) ticked up for the 2nd month due to tariffs. Most economists say companies are still running their pre-tariff inventory, so the tariffs’ effects are yet to show. Additionally, the changing decisions regarding tariffs have seen many not instigated until this month. So there are more tariff impacts to come, but that could also dilute the effect, as not all are happening at once. China’s tariff decision was postponed another 90 days yesterday. The US budget deficit figure was released last night. The July deficit increased to $219bn after showing a surplus in June. The tariffs increased to $21bn, with most being paid by the company at this stage. |
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| Aussie Reporting Season Results are coming out on the following dates for the CORE Watchlist companies 30 July Rio Tinto (RIO) reported resilient half-year results with $4.5 billion net profit, supported by strong copper and aluminium performance despite lower iron ore prices and cyclone disruptions. 1 Aug ResMed (RMD) delivered a 37% increase in net income to $1.4 billion for FY25, driven by 10% revenue growth and expanding margins across its sleep and digital health businesses 11 Aug JB Hi-Fi (JBH) reported strong FY25 results with net income of $459.9 million, driven by solid sales and a final dividend of $1.83 per share. 13 Aug Commonwealth Bank (CBA) posted a record $10.25 billion cash profit, up 4% from FY24, supported by lending growth and a final dividend of $2.60 per share. Computershare (CPU) delivered a 15% increase in Management EPS and boosted its dividend by 14%, reflecting strong performance across its core businesses 14 Aug ORA TLS WBC 16 Aug SEK 18 Aug LLC NAB 19 Aug BHP CSL WDS 20 Aug TCL STO 21 Aug BXB GMG SHL 26 Aug COL 27 Aug WOW 28 Aug S32 WES |
| Financial Planning Snippets PLEASE BE VIGILANT regarding financial scamming. If anyone is requesting financial information from you (via phone, email, text, or social media), please contact us first or ask them for their ABN. Super Guarantee (SGC) for employees increases to 12% from 1/7/25 Concessional super contributions maximum of $30k Commonwealth Seniors Health Care card has seen the income limit increase to $158,440 (couple) $99,025 (single). If you are of Age Pension age and don’t have the card, please let us know. |
| Non-concessional Contributions (NCC) NCC are after-tax contributions made to your superannuation fund, and they play a key role in boosting retirement savings. For the 2025–26 financial year (FY26), the annual non-concessional contributions cap remains at $120,000 There is also a bring-forward arrangement, allowing up to $360,000 in non-concessional contributions over a three-year period, provided certain conditions are met. Those conditions have had changes made for this financial year as shown in the table below. If your super balance was below $2m as of 30/6/25, you can still make an NCC. This has increased from $1.9m. If your super balance is below $1.88m you can make a contribution up to $240k (2 years bring forward). This has increased from $1.78m If your super balance is below $1.76m you can make a contribution of up to $360k (3 years bring forward). This has increased from $1.66m If your balance equals or exceeds $2 million at the end of the previous financial year, your non-concessional contributions cap is reduced to $0, meaning you cannot make further non-concessional contributions. This assists in growing super balances and generating future tax-free income, where $2m is now the amount that can be used to start a tax-free pension (Account-Based Pension). The NCC also assists in the re-contribution strategy as we are able to withdraw from pension and re-contribute as NCC, which is considered a tax-free component. This assists with future estate planning. |
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| Other Stories – ETFs had a record monthly inflow of $5.9bn. – Tyro payments received an unsolicited takeover bid. |
| Broker Target Price changes Target Prices should be viewed as a compass (the general direction) rather than a GPS destination. Ord Minnett JB Hi-Fi (JBH) increased from $89 to $97 Morgans CBA decreased from $97.49 (lowest broker) to $97.40 (still lowest broker). JBH increased from $92 to $95 Morgan Stanley BHP decreased from $44 (highest broker) to $43.50 JBH increased from $73.60 (lowest broker) to $83.40 (still lowest broker) South 32 (S32) decreased from $3.55 to $3.45 Macquarie JBH increased from $112 to $118 Woodside (WDS) increased from $24 to $27.50 Bell Potter/Citigroup Brambles (BXB) increased from $20.15 to $23.60 UBS JBH increased from $95 to $112 South 32 (S32) decreased from $3.20 (lowest broker) to $3.10 (still lowest broker) Tracking changes for 2025 Upgrades 207 Downgrades 186 |
| Core Watchlist Index (changes since last Not So) The CORE Watchlist is a collection of 30 Australian shares, predominantly “Blue Chip”. We obtain research from up to 6 brokers on each share. Each broker provides a Target Price (value in 12 months) which then provides us with an average for each stock. We then compare that average to the current price as a percentage. IE Macquarie price $176.95 Av. Target Price $205.96= 85.9% (meaning 14.1% upside over next 12 months) + income 4.35% (including franking). To get the CORE Index we take the average across the 30 stocks. This provides us with a market average as there are up to 80 teams of analysts providing the research and target prices. The CORE Watchlist stocks represent more than 55% of the ASX 200 and so provide us with a good indicator of the market value. When it’s at 100% then the market is fully priced. We have seen that when the index is below 90%, then it’s good buying, but that doesn’t happen very often. Should you have any questions, please let me know. The Core index decreased from 100.12% to 99.66%. Fell below 100% for the first time in 5 days. If we removed the 4 banks, the index falls to 95.62% Overall Earnings Per Share (EPS) FY25 decreased from 1.13% to 0.95% FY26 increased from 8.14% to 8.26% Most expensive – CBA 154.6% (176.5% highest ever). Least expensive – NextDC (NXT) 74.2% The CORE Watchlist has 12 (10) stocks trading above 100%; they are; ANZ BXB CBA CPU JBH NAB RIO TCL TLS WBC WDS WES, lowest number ever is 0, highest is 14. While 3 (5) is trading below 85% (the highest is 18, and the lowest is one). CSL LLC NXT (Figures in brackets are last Not So). STOCKS TRADING BELOW ALL BROKER FORECASTS ARE AS FOLLOWS; (it has been a handy indicator in the past). 7 out of the 30 CORE stocks are trading below the lowest broker target price. Highest 24. Lowest is 2. ALL current price $69.70 Broker range $70 to $76 CSL current price $265.53 Broker range $303.70 to $347.30 LLC current price $5.42 Broker range $5.85 to $7.79 NXT current price $14.53 Broker range $18.00 to $22.10 RMD current price $43.55 Broker range $47.86 to $49 S32 current price $3.06 Broker range $3.20 to $4.10 SEK current price $25.07 Broker range $25.50 to $30.10 Added ALL Removed BHP |
| Banking Index (changes since last Not So) Like the CORE Watchlist index, the Banking index is the four major banks’ average target price based on research from up to 6 brokers. The percentage below 100% is the potential upside over the next 12 months (not including income). If at or over 100%, then this indicates the Banks are fully priced. The banking index decreased from 128.2% to 126.4%. It hit a near-record 130.1% yesterday. Based on today’s bank prices, the table below shows the estimated dividends (c) and yield. PLUS FRANKING. FY 25 % FY 26 % FY27 % ANZ 164.00 5.15% 162.00 5.08% 162.2 5.09% CBA 484.20 2.86% 499.60 2.86% 515.4 3.05% NAB 170.00 4.45% 170.20 4.46% 165.4 4.33% WBC 152.00 4.48% 155.20 4.58% 148.6 4.38% MQG 650.00 3.04% 739.50 3.46% 801.25 3.75% CBA yield is below all the others. Dividend expectations for BHP and RIO. The forecasts below are for the full year. Plus franking. Please note RIO is Calendar Year (CY). Cents per share (CPS). FY25 % FY26 % FY27 % BHP 153.83 3.69% 155.50 3.73% 167.00 4.00% RIO 541.40 4.59% 538.60 4.57% 563.40 4.78% |
| Other Indicators (changes since last Not So) US VIX (Fear) Index decreased from 16.77 to 14.73. Fell into the normal range. Normal is 10-17. Iron Ore increased from $101.95 to $104.40. The average expectation for 2025 is $98.3. Copper increased from $4.42 to $4.52. ALL TIME HIGH of $5.8955 on July 8.Gold decreased from $3446 to $3398. ATH $3509.90. AUD/USD increased from 65.11c to 65.3c. Asian markets – UP with Japan hitting new highs. US 10-year Bonds increased from 4.25% to 4.28%. 2-year rate 3.73%. 30 year rate back below 5% at 4.86%. German 10 year Bonds increased from 2.66% to 2.73%. Japanese 10 year Bonds increased from 1.49% to 1.52%. Highest for 16 years was 1.601%. Aussie Bonds 10 year Bonds decreased from 4.25% to 4.23%. Recent high 4.95%. Oil prices decreased from $64.80 to $63.17. Tungsten—China price increased from $463mtu to $473mtu. The European price range remained at $475-$495mtu (highest price for 13 years). |
| This week & next week Last, “Not So” opened in 7 Aust states (excl NT), 6 US states (California, Massachusetts, Colorado, Virginia, New Jersey & Ohio ), Bulgaria and Sweden. This week – In Office – August reviews Next week – In Office -apart from Tuesday (Wagga) – August reviews. |
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