| TOP STORIES |
| On Monday, 24 November 2025, the ASX jumped 109 points to close at 8,525. This is after dropping 136 points on Friday. We are seeing increased volatility as the markets have questions about AI and the overall strength of the economy, the direction of inflation, and interest rates.Market volatility is normal, as shown in the following statistics on the US S&P 500 (average since 1928). How often does the stock market decline? 1% drop: 50-60 times a year 3% drop: 7-8 times a year 5% drop: 3-4 times a year 10% drop: every 1.1 years 15% drop: every 2 years 20% drop: every 3 ½ years 25% drop: every 5-7 years We have just seen a pullback of around 5% which has occurred 3 times this year, in line with the average. We also know that the market recovers from ALL these declines. The bounce today was after a strong Friday in the US. According to Bell Potter’s COPPO report, the two major concerns in the US have been the AI bubble & prospect of no cut by the US Fed in December. Well, the AI bubble fears were alienated after yet another big result for Nvidia & the other massive worry – that no rate cut was coming in December has suddenly done a huge U-turn & at the same time caught so many off guard. Many have been waiting for the two catalysts to trigger a significant US correction, but the -5% to -8% correction that I’ve (Coppo) been anticipating appears to have arrived, and the lows may have been reached in this selloff. We won’t know officially for another week or 2 as the volatility in US mkts could see a few more volatile days until things calm down. However, it will be a holiday-shortened week in the US, with the US market closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving and operating on a half-day on Friday. So our market will follow the US from here & should be a strong week for the ASX. The brokers are starting to provide outlooks for 2026. I’ve included a summary of Morgan Stanley and UBS below. We are happy for you to share our Not So Daily Bulletin with family and friends. If we can help them, we are also excited to chat. |
| 2026 Aussie ASX 200 Targets Morgan Stanley (MS) research provided the following Despite another good year for markets, returns for the S&P/ASX 200 (~9% total returns YTD), the index has again underperformed global markets. We (MS) see a similar outcome next year: a constructive outlook for Australian equities, although still likely to lag other key developed markets and particularly the US. Over the past month, consensus earnings have steadily trended higher across the forecast years (FY26/27/28) driven by revisions within the Materials sector. Global growth, commodity signals and investment trends are all key inputs. Bank earnings are expected to remain modestly positive while domestic cyclical stocks could carry some momentum from easing to date, but with a caveat to any headwind from an extended pause in monetary easing. Valuation remains the most contentious issue for investors at these levels. Multiples paid for earnings are stretched at ~18.7x and this compares to the 16.3x 10 year average and 14.9x long run average.When looking across Morgan Stanley price multiple assumptions for the broader Developed Market strategy peers, there is an expectation that multiples can be held above longer term averages. Indeed our US team sees a PE for the S&P 500 of ~22x being sustained. As a result, our (MS) strategist expects only some modest de-rating into 2026, which reflects a continued mix of earnings weight towards Materials and a degree of positioning rotation linked to that. The gap to earnings has been wide with circa three years of negative earnings growth for the market to FY25. For 2026, the earnings picture has improved with a boost from the Materials sector and 12 month forward EPS growth standing at 8.6%. This improved earnings backdrop, combined with the constructive global view towards activity and earnings (US led), sees us set our (MS) year-end price target for the S&P/ASX 200 Index at 9,250. See the table below UBS also released their ASX 200 2026 target. They expect Australian shares to regain momentum in 2026, forecasting a return to double-digit earnings growth and setting a year-end ASX 200 target of 8900. A stronger domestic economy and a mining-led upgrade cycle are expected to drive the sharpest profit growth in four years, reversing a prolonged period of earnings downgrades across the market. |
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| NVIDIA Quarterly NVIDIA’s share price has a significant influence on current market movements given its the large company in the world with a market cap of $US4.34 trillion. Twice the size of the ASX. In the last Not So, Global X’s investment strategist outlined the quarterly result. Below are two charts that break down quarterly earnings growth and profit. The first chart shows NVIDIA earned $57bn for the 3 months, and after expenses and tax, they managed to keep 56% as net profit or $31bn. Most good companies aim for a 30% net profit margin. In short, it’s highly valued because of its strong growth history, as shown in the second chart. Four years ago, NVIDIA was generating $5 billion per quarter; now it is $57 billion, and they are expecting it to grow to $65 billion next quarter, with more expected in 2026. There is increasing talk of an AI bubble, and references to the last time technology was in a bubble being the dotcom boom/bust of 2000-2002. While the broad commercial benefits of AI have yet to be realised through financial returns on the large amounts of capital invested. NVIDIA has been the biggest beneficiary as AI infrastructure needs to be built (in data centres), and they require semiconductors (computer chips) to deliver the AI capacity, which, at present, NVIDIA has more demand than supply. This doesn’t look like it’s stopping any time soon, with trillions stillto be spent in the coming years. On a valuation basis, NVIDIA is not too expensive, trading at 26 times FY26 earnings. Based on this, Wesfarmers has a higher P/E. |
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| Exchange Traded Fund Series An Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) is a type of investment fund that is traded on stock exchanges, much like individual stocks. An ETF; Holds a collection of assets such as stocks, bonds, commodities, or a mix.Tracks an index, sector, commodity, or other asset (e.g., ASX 200, S&P 500, gold).Trades like a stock, meaning you can buy and sell it throughout the trading day at market prices. Other features Diversification: One ETF can give exposure to dozens or hundreds of companies. Liquidity: Easy to buy/sell on the exchange. Lower Fees: Typically cheaper than actively managed funds. Transparency: Holdings are usually published daily. Dividends: Many ETFs pay out dividends from the underlying assets. Index ETFs: Track a market index (e.g., ASX 200, S&P 500). Sector of Thematic ETFs: Focus on specific industries (e.g., tech, healthcare). Bond ETFs: Invest in government or corporate bonds. Commodity ETFs: Track commodities like gold or oil. International ETFs: Provide exposure to global markets. Smart Beta ETFs: blends index with active strategies like quality, volatility, dividends, or value—rather than traditional market capitalisation. The ETF market has grown very quickly in terms of dollars, with a 35% increase in the last year to approx $300bn (similar market cap to CBA) and also a rapid growth of products on the ASX with over 400 different ETFs. We currently assess 80. 8. Van Eck MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EMKT) EMKT invests in large and midcap stocks based on value, momentum, low size and quality, primarily in Asia, South America and the Middle East. Emerging markets are likely to benefit from the global recovery and a lower USD. Key Features • Active Management: Built on Lazard’s 30+ years of emerging markets expertise, the fund seeks structurally growing companies with strong financial productivity and attractive valuations. • High-Conviction Approach: Focuses on a concentrated portfolio emphasising quality and long-term growth, with tactical flexibility to adjust to mispricing. • Valuation Edge: Offers access at a valuation discount—emerging market equities historically trade about 40% lower than U.S. equities, presenting potential upside. Benefits for Investors • Growth and Diversification: Provides exposure to some of the fastest-growing economies and industries globally. • Expertise and Heritage: Leverages Lazard’s deep, localised insights and on-ground presence across emerging markets. • Balanced Risk Management: Employs fundamental bottom-up analysis while maintaining tactical flexibility to manage volatility and mispricing. Price Earnings (PE) 10.84 Dividend Yield 3.29% Top 5 countries China 31% South Korea 20.1% Taiwan 19.5% India 14.6% UAE 2.5% Top 5 Sectors IT 30% Financials 18.5% Consumer Discretionary 11.4% Industrials 8.9% Communications 7.4% Return over 12 months 29.10% 5 years 13.88% pa Previous in series 1. VanEck Global Quality (QUAL/QHAL) 2. VanEck Global Value (VLUE) 3. iShares Asia (IAA) 4. Global X Artificial Intelligence (GXAI) 5. BetaShare Cybersecurity (HACK) 6. Van Eck MSCI International Small Company Quality ETF (QSML) 7. iShares Europe (IEU) |
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| Financial Planning Snippets PLEASE BE VIGILANT regarding financial scamming. If anyone is requesting financial information from you (via phone, email, text, or social media), please contact us first or ask them for their ABN. Super Guarantee (SGC) for employees increases to 12% from 1/7/25.Concessional super contributions maximum of $30k Commonwealth Seniors Health Care card has seen the income limit increase to $158,440 (couple) $99,025 (single). If you are of Age Pension age and don’t have the card, please let us know. Macquarie Cash accounts – IF CHANGING YOUR PHONE, YOU NEED TO DEACTIVATE AUTHENTICATOR AND SWITCH TOTHE NEW PHONE New AGED CARE fees come into effect from 1/11/25. Only for those entering care after this date. |
| Other Stories Macquarie Asset Management has made a bid for QUBE (infrastructure). |
| Broker Target Price Changes Target Prices should be viewed as a compass (the general direction) rather than a GPS destination. Ord Minnett Santos (STO) decreased from $8.10 to $8 Morgans Morgan Stanley Sonic Health (SHL) increased from $23.80 (lowest broker) to $24.50 Macquarie Bell Potter/Citigroup Sonic Health (SHL) decreased from $24 to $23.50 (lowest broker) UBS Tracking changes for 2025 Upgrades 373 Downgrades 292 |
| Core Watchlist Index (changes since last Not So) The CORE Watchlist is a collection of 30 Australian shares, predominantly “Blue Chip”. We obtain research from up to 6 brokers on each share. Each broker provides a Target Price (value in 12 months) which then provides us with an average for each stock. We then compare that average to the current price as a percentage. IE Macquarie price $176.95 Av. Target Price $205.96= 85.9% (meaning 14.1% upside over next 12 months) + income 4.35% (including franking). To get the CORE Index we take the average across the 30 stocks. This provides us with a market average as there are up to 80 teams of analysts providing the research and target prices. The CORE Watchlist stocks represent more than 55% of the ASX 200 and so provide us with a good indicator of the market value. When it’s at 100% then the market is fully priced. We have seen that when the index is below 90%, then it’s good buying, but that doesn’t happen very often. Should you have any questions, please let me know. The Core index decreased from 91.47% to 91.33%. If we removed the 4 banks, the index falls to 87.89% Overall Earnings Per Share (EPS) FY25 decreased from 2.65% to 2.61% FY26 increased from 6.77% to 6.93% Most expensive – CBA 131.8% (176.5% highest ever). Least expensive – NXT 68.3% The CORE Watchlist has 6 (8) stocks trading above 100%; they are; ANZ CBA NAB TCL TLS WBC lowest number ever is 0, highest is 15. While 9 (9) is trading below 85% (the highest is 18, and the lowest is one). ALL AMC CSL GMG LLC NEC NXT RMD SEK (Figures in brackets are last Not So). STOCKS TRADING BELOW ALL BROKER FORECASTS ARE AS FOLLOWS; (it has been a handy indicator in the past). 16 out of the 30 CORE stocks are trading below the lowest broker target price. Highest 24. Lowest is 2. ALL current price $58.50 Broker range $71 to $75 AMC current price $13.13 Broker range $14.10 to $18.46 BHP current price $40.62 Broker range $43 to $48 BXB current price $23.60 Broker range $25.50 to $29.40 COL current price $22.52 Broker range $22.90 to $26.60 CSL current price $182.95 Broker range $225 to $275.20 GMG current price $29.24 Broker range $33.50 to 41.50 LLC current price $5.22 Broker range $5.85 to $6.74 NXT current price $13.60 Broker range $18.00 to $22.10 NEC current price $1.10 Broker range $1.22 to $1.41 ORI current price $23.35 Broker range $25.95 to $28 RMD current price $38.65 Broker range $47.04 to $51 SEK current price $25.46 Broker range $30.80 to $32.50 SHL current price $23.54 Broker range $24 to $29.40 STO current price $6.49 Broker range $6.80 to $8.15 WOW current price $28.09 Broker range $28.25 to $33 Added Removed |
| Banking Index (changes since last Not So) Like the CORE Watchlist index, the Banking index is the four major banks’ average target price based on research from up to 6 brokers. The percentage below 100% is the potential upside over the next 12 months (not including income). If at or over 100%, then this indicates the Banks are fully priced. The banking index increased from 113.5% to 113.6% Based on today’s bank prices, the table below shows the estimated dividends (c) and yield. PLUS FRANKING. FY 25 % FY 26 % FY27 % ANZ 164.00 4.69% 166.60 4.77% 173.2 4.96% CBA 485.00 3.13% 495.40 3.13% 512.2 3.31% NAB 170.00 4.18% 170.60 4.19% 167.6 4.12% WBC 153.00 4.03% 155.60 4.10% 158.8 4.18% MQG 650.00 3.36% 706.50 3.65% 801.75 4.14% CBA yield is below all the others. Dividend expectations for BHP and RIO. The forecasts below are for the full year. Plus franking. Please note RIO is Calendar Year (CY). Cents per share (CPS). FY25 % FY26 % FY27 % BHP 171.00 4.21% 172.20 4.24% 185.80 4.57% RIO 587.20 4.54% 629.00 4.86% 625.40 4.84% |
| Other Indicators (changes since last Not So) US VIX (Fear) Index decreased from 23.66 to 23.43. Normal is 10-17. Above normal Iron Ore increased from $104.10 to $104.25. The average expectation for 2025 is $98.3. Copper decreased from $5.03 to $5. It reached an all-time high of $5.8955 on July 8. Gold decreased from $4071 to $4041. New ATH $4393.60 this month. AUD/USD decreased from 64.83c to 64.61c. Asian markets – MIXED US 10-year Bonds decreased from 4.14 to 4.07%. 2-year rate 3.51%. 30 year rate below 5% at 4.72%. German 10 year Bonds decreased from 2.72% to 2.69%. Japanese 10 year Bonds decreased from 1.81% to 1.78%. Highest since July 2007 1.81%. 30-year Bond hit an ATH of 3.25% Aussie Bonds 10 year Bonds decreased from 4.47% to 4.46%. 2025 high 4.95%. Oil prices decreased from $59.66 to $58.06 The price of tungsten in China remained at $733mtu. The European price range increased from $673.75mtu -$705mtu to $735mtu-$780mtu. The price has increased 100% since April. Prices are at an all-time high due to the Chinese government’s continued export ban. |
| This week & next week Last, “Not So” opened in 7 Aust states (excl NT), 9 US states, Bulgaria & Sweden. This week – In office – finishing November reviews. Next week – Scott’s knee operation on December 1, likely not back in the office until January 5. Kevin and the rest of the team (Chris, Maddy Kara) will be working up to Christmas. Christmas closing dates: December 19 -COB. Reopening January 5. |
| Top Stories |
| On Wednesday, October 29, 2025, the ASX fell 1% or 86 points to finish at 8926. The market was holding steady until the hotter-than-expected inflation number was released. Best summed up by Bell Potter’s Coppo report. 1. The ASX 200 was smacked -86 points or -0.96% (low -91pts) after the hotter than expected inflation number today effectively ruled out any chance of a rate cut next Tuesday by the RBA – that ship has now sailed. 2. In fact, some think it’s killed the rate cycle completely, with December now a zero chance & a cut next year in February now seen as a write off. 3. So with the prospect of no more rate cuts for a while the market hit the banks, financials & REITS. 4. In fact the risks that inflation trends back up, could mean that the unthinkable is now a real chance – that the next move by the RBA in 2026 could be a rate hike!!! 5. But there is a lot of economic data to come before the odds of that start to firm. 6. Tomorrow is a big day here, that could well show the roadmap that the US mkt will meander between now & XMAS. 9. The FED will cut rates tonight -25pts and at the press conference after at 5.30am Syd time if Powell even “hints” that there is the “chance” of another cut in December – mkts will get excited 10. Then just after 7am (after US mkt has closed) Microsoft, Alphabet & Meta all report – and they will really shape things going forward. We are happy for you to share our Not So Daily Bulletin with family and friends. If we can help them, we are also excited to chat. |
| Australian inflation – higher than expected! The Australian quarterly inflation rate came in at 1.2% and 3.2% for the year, which was hotter than expected. Additionally, the core of the trimmed inflation rate, which excludes the volatile components of food and energy, remains at 3%. The share market took this as a negative as the expectation of an interest rate cut was reduced. Kevin “the interest rate whisperer” Hanson agrees, we are unlikely to see an interest rate cut on Melbourne Cup day. |
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| U.S.-China trade negotiations There is likley to be a meeting this week in South Korea with Trump and Xi AMP’s Shane Oliver provided a summary of the current positions. Overall, in the short term, China has an upper hand in negotiations for three reasons: 1. While domestic economic growth is still slowing, 4.8% growth rate is not a recessionary level, and softening growth has not been driven by tariffs. Past attempts at stimulus measures have shown that they worked, so the Chinese government will only deploy them as necessary. 2. China has clear dominance in the supply chain of critical minerals and raw materials for emerging technology. At least in the next few years, China is not dependent on just the US as a customer. 3. The US faces more domestic and market constraints. Trump still sees the financial markets, whether shares or bonds, as important to his success. Every threat to raise tariffs to prohibitively high levels this year has been followed by a backdown and efforts to convince investors that “it will all be fine!” or commonly referred to as the TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) trade. More importantly, as mid-term elections come closer, the government will need to refocus on both containing inflation and addressing slowing jobs growth – neither of which is helped by trade wars or policy uncertainty. However, in the long term, national security concerns will see both countries race to patch up their respective weaknesses (i.e. rare earths supply for the US and chipmaking capabilities for China). Ultimately, a more fragmented and less specialised supply chain only means that productivity won’t be as high as it could be, and may well threaten the superiority of the US market in the next century. |
| US tech bubble? Five of the magnificent seven are reporting their quarterly earnings over the next two days. The market is anticipating growing results that have pushed most to near ALL-TIME HIGHS. While the S&P 500 is up 17% for the year, the Mag 7 has accounted for 60% to 70% of the gain in the S&P 500. This is after accounting for 57% of the S&P500 24% in 2024. There is increasing talk of an AI bubble that can’t be ruled out, however, in a research note from Goldman Sachs, they say while the sheer scale of market dominance of leading technology companies is striking: the top five US technology companies collectively hold a value exceeding the combined size of the Eurostoxx 50, the UK, India, Japan, and Canada, representing approximately 16% of the entire global public equity market. That said, while technology stocks have increased dramatically in size, they do not think we are in a bubble yet: 1. AI applications are boosting productivity when deployed. 2. Unlocking these productivity benefits requires significant computational power, especially since models are increasing in size (see chart exhibit 6 below) much more quickly than computation and energy costs are falling. Goldman Sachs are not concerned about the total amount of AI investment. AI investment as a share of US GDP is smaller today (<1%) than in prior large technology cycles (2-5%) as seen in the table below 3. The appreciation of the technology sector has, thus far, been primarily driven by fundamental growth and robust earnings, rather than irrational speculation about future potential. 4. The leading companies that have experienced the strongest returns possess unusually strong balance sheets. 5. The AI space has, to date, been dominated by a few established incumbents. Most historical bubbles, conversely, formed during periods of intense competition as both investors and numerous new entrants flocked into the space. Furthermore, Goldman Sachs estimates an $8tn capital revenue unlocked by AI productivity gains in the US, with plausible estimates ranging from $5tn-$19tn (chart below: % of GDP spent investing in new technology). These estimates exceed current cumulative AI investment forecasts. Nevertheless, market concentration is historically high, and given these risks, the focus is on diversification strategies. |
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| US Tech quarterly earnings The overall expectations for the Mag 7 from this quarter are as follows; Overall Expectations Earnings Growth: The Magnificent Seven are projected to post 11.9% to 14.9% year-over-year earnings growth, significantly outpacing the rest of the S&P 500, which is expected to grow at 6.7%. Revenue Growth: Revenue growth for the group is expected to be around 15.3%. [fxstreet.com] AI Spending: Capital expenditures, especially for AI infrastructure, are a major theme. Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta are expected to spend $360 billion in 2025, rising to $420 billion in 2026. Microsoft (Reporting Oct 29) Expected EPS: $3.65 (up 10.6% YoY) Revenue Estimate: $74.96B (+14.3% YoY) Key Drivers: Azure cloud growth (projected +38%), Copilot AI adoption, and enterprise contract expansion. Alphabet (Reporting Oct 29) Expected EPS: $2.27 Focus Areas: Cloud business momentum, search dominance in the AI era, and DOJ case resolution. Stock Performance: Up 41.6% YTD return. Meta Platforms (Reporting Oct 29) Expected EPS: $8.10 Strengths: Strong ad revenue, AI-powered products (e.g., smart glasses), and Family of Apps performance. Surprise History: Average earnings surprise of 19.23% over the last four quarters. Amazon (Reporting Oct 30) Expected EPS: $1.58 Revenue Guidance: $174B–$179.5B (+10–13% YoY) Key Issues: AWS outage, AI infrastructure spending, advertising growth, and Q4 holiday season outlook. Apple (Reporting Oct 30) Expected EPS: $1.76 Concerns: Lagging AI investment compared to peers, which may explain recent underperformance. Positives: Strong iPhone 17 sales and record share price. Nvidia (Reporting Nov 19) Expected EPS: $0.78 Focus: AI chip demand, data centre growth, and its role as the backbone of AI infrastructure. Performance: 50% YTD return; consistently strong earnings surprises Bubble Watch: The Magnificent Seven now represent over one-third of the S&P 500’s market cap, raising concerns about market concentration. Fed Rate Cut: A potential rate cut this week could further boost tech valuation. |
| Bank earnings Citibank provided the following comments regarding the upcoming bank profit results. WBC (3 Nov) – FY25 Cash Net Profit After Tax (NPAT) $6,807m, Basic Cash Earnings Per share (EPS) 199c, Dividend per share (DPS) 152c Our cash earnings estimate is 3.6% below consensus on account of lower BDD expenses and recently announced restructuring costs of $273m, which consensus fails to incorporate fully, in our view. Adjusted for one-time restructuring costs, our core earnings are in line with consensus, while cash earnings are 1% below consensus. NAB (6 Nov) – FY25 Cash NPAT $7,107m, Basic Cash EPS 232c, DPS 170c Our cash earnings estimate is 1% below consensus, on account of higher BDD expenses than consensus. On PPoP, we are in line with consensus. MQG (7 Nov) – 1H26 Cash NPAT $1,877m, Basic Cash EPS 495c, DPS 280c Our 1H26 cash earnings estimate is in line with consensus, although our segmental mix varies. On MAM, we are 15% below consensus, but 7-8% higher for CGM and MacCap. The risk with the result is that depending on the timing of realisations, the typical reliance on 2H seasonality could be greater this year to meet guidance and consensus. ANZ (10 Nov) – FY25 Cash NPAT $6,356m, Basic Cash EPS 214c, DPS 166c Our cash earnings estimate is 1% below consensus, attributed to one-time costs restructuring and ASIC settlement costs which is not fully captured by consensus yet. Adjusted for the same, our core earnings are in line with consensus. We see upside risk to our earnings estimate as 2H25 underlying opex may turn out to be below management guidance given the recent focus on cost resets. 1Q quarterly trading updates for CBA (11 Nov) UBS numbers are WBC NPAT $6.6bn EPS $1.93 and Dividend $1.55 NAB NPAT $7.2bn EPS $2.31 and Dividend $1.70 MQG NPAT $1.999bn EPS $5.25 and Dividend $3.10 ANZ NPAT $6.806bn EPS $2.25 and Dividend $1.66 |
| CSL CSL was the third largest company on the ASX; however, after announcing last month, it was splitting off one of its businesses. Yesterday at the AGM, they announced that growth would be in the high single digits rather than the low single digits. Due to several factors, including US tariffs, declining US vaccination rates (RFK Jnr) and cost-cutting measures in China. The company suggested that workarounds were available, but they would require some time. The market obviously didn’t want to wait, and the stock was sold down 16% and a further 4% today. The brokers updated their numbers as outlined in the target price section. The interesting observation is that they still have only BUY & HOLD recommendations, and profit and dividends are still expected to grow each year. Comments from Bell Potters Coppo report. CSL hit a 7-year low, as quants and machines sold on earnings downgrades, plus institutions also joined in again today, as the stock followed yesterday’s -15.9% savaging after they cut the earnings outlook and delayed the Seqirus demerger amid weak US vaccine demand and China cost pressures. Volume yesterday was massive at 5.6m shares (vs normally 2.3m), and again today it was elevated (indicating more selling was hitting it) at 3.9m shares. This will take a while to recover & so is a write-off for the rest of 2025. PW fundamental comparison For those brave enough. Look at the comparison with CBA. They have the same share price, even after today’s downgrades by the brokers, CSL is expected to earn over $4 per share more ($10.93 v $6.33), which gives CSL a PE of 15 compared to 26 for CBA. Even the dividend is close, CSL is still expected to increase its dividend over the next 3 years. |
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| Exchange Traded Fund series An Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) is a type of investment fund that is traded on stock exchanges, much like individual stocks. An ETF; Holds a collection of assets such as stocks, bonds, commodities, or a mix. Tracks an index, sector, commodity, or other asset (e.g., ASX 200, S&P 500, gold). Trades like a stock, meaning you can buy and sell it throughout the trading day at market prices. Other features Diversification: One ETF can give exposure to dozens or hundreds of companies. Liquidity: Easy to buy/sell on the exchange. Lower Fees: Typically cheaper than actively managed funds. Transparency: Holdings are usually published daily. Dividends: Many ETFs pay out dividends from the underlying assets. Index ETFs: Track a market index (e.g., ASX 200, S&P 500). Sector or Thematic ETFs: Focus on specific industries (e.g., tech, healthcare). Bond ETFs: Invest in government or corporate bonds. Commodity ETFs: Track commodities like gold or oil. International ETFs: Provide exposure to global markets. Smart Beta ETFs: blends index with active strategies like quality, volatility, dividends, or value—rather than traditional market capitalisation. The ETF market has grown very quickly in terms of dollars, with a 35% increase in the last year to approx $300bn (similar market cap to CBA) and also a rapid growth of products on the ASX with over 400 different ETFs. We currently assess 80. 5. Betashares Global Cybersecurity ETF (HACK) HACK ETF provides a passive exposure to global cybersecurity companies predominantly in industries including systems software, IT consulting and communication services. Cybersecurity can be viewed as a growing sector given the rise in cybercrime. The ETF includes global cybersecurity giants as well as emerging companies in the space with the aim of tracking the performance of the Nasdaq Technology Association Cybersecurity which comprises around 40 companies. There is no currency hedging in this fund. Growth Drivers Rising Cybercrime Cyber threats are increasing globally, with Australia reporting a 23% year-over-year rise in cybercrime incidents and an average cost of $46,000 per small business incident. This trend is pushing governments and businesses to invest more in cybersecurity. Digital Transformation As more activities move online—banking, shopping, communication—the need for robust cybersecurity grows. This makes the sector both defensive and growth-oriented, even during economic downturns. Strong Performance History 1-Year Return: +28.19% 5-Year Return: +90.86%Since Inception (2016): +203.01% These figures reflect consistent long-term growth. Global Exposure The ETF includes leading cybersecurity firms from the U.S., Israel, India, France, and Japan, offering diversified access to a high-growth sector. Sector Focus With 93.65% of holdings in the Technology sector, the ETF is tightly aligned with innovation and digital infrastructure. Number of holdings 39. Top sectors Technology: 93.65% Industrials: 6.5% Top regions US: 75-80% India: 7.5% Israel: 8% France: 4% Japan: 1.7% End of Sep 2025 return 34.25% Previous in series 1. VanEck Global Quality (QUAL/QHAL) 2. VanEck Global Value (VLUE) 3. iShares Asia (IAA) 4. Global X Artificial Intelligence (GXAI) |
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| Financial Planning Snippets PLEASE BE VIGILANT regarding financial scamming. If anyone is requesting financial information from you (via phone, email, text, or social media), please contact us first or ask them for their ABN. Super Guarantee (SGC) for employees increases to 12% from 1/7/25. Concessional super contributions maximum of $30k Commonwealth Seniors Health Care card has seen the income limit increase to $158,440 (couple) $99,025 (single). If you are of Age Pension age and don’t have the card, please let us know. Macquarie Cash accounts – IF CHANGING YOUR PHONE, YOU NEED TO DEACTIVATE AUTHENTICATOR AND SWITCH TOTHE NEW PHONE New AGED CARE fees come into effect from 1/11/25. Only for those entering care after this date. |
| Other Stories – BHP is settling 30% of Iron Ore contracts in Yuan and not USD in 2026. – US announces $80bn investment in nuclear reactors built by Westinghouse. |
| Broker Target Price changes Target Prices should be viewed as a compass (the general direction) rather than a GPS destination. Ord Minnett CSL decreased from $258 (lowest broker) to $235 Morgans CSL decreased from $293.83 to $249.51 Woodside (WDS) increased from $29.60 to $30.50 Morgan Stanley CSL decreased from $285 to $248 CBA increased from $143.70 (highest broker) to $144.80 (still highest broker) Goodman Group (GMG) increased from $40.47 (highest broker) to $41.50 (still highest broker) South 32 (S32) increased from $3.25 to $3.45 Westpac (WBC) increased from $32.20 to $31.60 Macquarie CSL decreased from $295.90 to $275.20 (highest broker) Bell Potter/Citigroup CSL decreased from $265 to $230 (lowest broker) UBS CSL decreased from $300 (highest broker) to $275 Tracking changes for 2025 Upgrades 341 Downgrades 265 |
| Core Watchlist Index (changes since last Not So) The CORE Watchlist is a collection of 30 Australian shares, predominantly “Blue Chip”. We obtain research from up to 6 brokers on each share. Each broker provides a Target Price (value in 12 months) which then provides us with an average for each stock. We then compare that average to the current price as a percentage. IE Macquarie price $176.95 Av. Target Price $205.96= 85.9% (meaning 14.1% upside over next 12 months) + income 4.35% (including franking). To get the CORE Index we take the average across the 30 stocks. This provides us with a market average as there are up to 80 teams of analysts providing the research and target prices. The CORE Watchlist stocks represent more than 55% of the ASX 200 and so provide us with a good indicator of the market value. When it’s at 100% then the market is fully priced. We have seen that when the index is below 90%, then it’s good buying, but that doesn’t happen very often. Should you have any questions, please let me know. The Core index increased from 96.16% to 96.19%. If we removed the 4 banks, the index falls to 92.03% Overall Earnings Per Share (EPS) FY25 decreased from 2.58% to 2.53% FY26 increased from 6.71% to 6.99% Most expensive – CBA 145% (176.5% highest ever). Least expensive – CSL 76.9%. The CORE Watchlist has 10 (9) stocks trading above 100%; they are; ANZ CBA JBH MQG NAB RIO TCL TLS WBC WES lowest number ever is 0, highest is 15. While 6 (7) is trading below 85% (the highest is 18, and the lowest is one). AMC CSL NXT RMD SHL STO (Figures in brackets are last Not So). STOCKS TRADING BELOW ALL BROKER FORECASTS ARE AS FOLLOWS; (it has been a handy indicator in the past). 13 out of the 30 CORE stocks are trading below the lowest broker target price. Highest 24. Lowest is 2. ALL current price $64.75 Broker range $70 to $77 AMC current price $12.58 Broker range $14.20 to $18.25 BXB current price $24.67 Broker range $25.50 to $29.40 COL current price $23.07 Broker range $23.45 to $26.80 CSL current price $217.55 Broker range $258 to $300 LLC current price $5.67 Broker range $5.90 to $7.12 NXT current price $16.19 Broker range $18.00 to $22.10 ORI current price $22.01 Broker range $22.71 to $25 RMD current price $41.22 Broker range $47.86 to $49 SEK current price $27.84 Broker range $30.80 to $32.50 SHL current price $21.64 Broker range $24.50 to $29.40 STO current price $6.45 Broker range $6.80 to $8.88 WOW current price $26.82 Broker range $28.25 to $33 Added Removed |
| Banking Index (changes since last Not So) Like the CORE Watchlist index, the Banking index is the four major banks’ average target price based on research from up to 6 brokers. The percentage below 100% is the potential upside over the next 12 months (not including income). If at or over 100%, then this indicates the Banks are fully priced. The banking index decreased from 123.8% to 122.4%. Lowest is ANZ 112.1% Highest CBA 143.7% Based on today’s bank prices, the table below shows the estimated dividends (c) and yield. PLUS FRANKING. FY 25 % FY 26 % FY 27 % ANZ 164.00 4.44% 162.00 4.38% 166 4.49% CBA 485.00 2.85% 501.40 2.85% 518.2 3.04% NAB 170.00 3.91% 171.20 3.94% 167.8 3.86% WBC 152.00 3.97% 154.60 4.04% 151.6 3.96% MQG 650.00 2.90% 745.25 3.32% 814.75 3.64% CBA yield is below all the others. Dividend expectations for BHP and RIO. The forecasts below are for the full year. Plus franking. Please note RIO is Calendar Year (CY). Cents per share (CPS). FY 25 % FY 26 % FY 27 % BHP 171.00 3.90% 172.20 3.92% 185.80 4.23% RIO 587.20 4.41% 629.00 4.72% 625.40 4.70% |
| Other Indicators (changes since last Not So) US VIX (Fear) Index decreased from 18.60 to 16.42. Normal is 10-17, so back in the normal range as US/China trade issues settle, but the government remains shut down. Iron Ore increased from $104.15 to $106. The average expectation for 2025 is $98.3. Copper increased from $5.02 to $5.17. It reached an all-time high of $5.8955 on July 8. Gold decreased from $4145.20 to $3970. New ATH $4393.60 last week. Profit-taking dropped back nearly 10% from its high. AUD/USD increased from 65.00c to 65.97c. Rate cut off the card. Asian markets – mainly higher with Japan hitting 51,000 for the first time. US 10-year Bonds increased from 3.97% to 3.98%. 2-year rate 3.50%. 30 year rate below 5% at 4.54%. German 10 year Bonds increased from 2.57% to 2.61%. Japanese 10 year Bonds decreased from 1.66% to 1.65%. Highest for 20 years. 30-year Bond hit an ATH of 3.25% Aussie Bonds 10 year Bonds increased from 4.14% to 4.23%. 2025 high 4.95%. Oil prices decreased from $60.68 to $60.07 The price of tungsten in China increased from $623mtu to $643mtu. The European price range increased from $600mtu-$685mtu to $610mtu to $685mtu. Prices are at an all-time high due to the Chinese continued export ban. |
| This week & next week Last, “Not So” opened in 7 Aust states (excl NT), 7 US states (including a new state – 31st New Hampshire), Bulgaria, Sweden, Germany, Romania and South Africa. |
| Top Stories |
| On Tuesday, October 1, 2025, the ASX reduced 3 points to finish at 8846. Today was a relatively flat day, as the focus was on the US and whether the government would remain open, as well as whether China had temporarily banned BHP’s iron ore. The ban proposed by the Chinese Mineral Resources Group, a state-owned buyer, is due to concerns over iron ore pricing. BHP hasn’t confirmed the ban, but it did drop 2.49% today. Interestingly, both RIO and FMG increased today. Yesterday, the RBA announced that interest rates would remain on hold, as predicted by Kevin “the interest rate whisperer” Hanson. Kevin said it’s too early to predict whether a cut will be made on Melbourne Cup day. Most markets have delivered a positive September, except for the ASX, which has lagged the others. Will the expected volatility come in October? If the US government shutdown drags on for a while, it might provide some volatility, but history shows that it is probably a BUY THE DIP moment. The Utes are rolling into Deni for the 27th Ute Muster, which is fully sold out for the first time. We are happy for you to share our Not So Daily Bulletin with family and friends, and if we can help them, we are also excited to chat. |
| September Market Review Most markets were positive during the month, bucking the historical trend for September, which is typically weaker, with only Germany and the ASX being negative. The best performers were Hong Kong, up 7% due to a recovery in Chinese technology stocks and increased investor confidence. The US Nasdaq rose 5.6% again, driven by technology. Japan gained 5% on renewed confidence following the resignation of the Japanese Prime Minister and the signing of a US-Japan trade deal. For the ASX, it was a combination of stocks trading ex-dividend, weaker energy prices and banks pulling back after a strong run. Over the last six months, all markets have remained positive as they have navigated global trade issues and US tariffs. The US Nasdaq was again the best, gaining 31%, while Japan rose 26%. The ASX was mid-pack with a gain of 12.8%, while the AUD gained 5.8% against a weaker USD. Over the last year, all markets have been positive as inflation and interest rates have returned to lower levels. The structural change brought about by AI has been a more potent force than the tariff/trade uncertainty. Most markets are in double digits, with Hong Kong leading the way with a gain of 27%. The ASX has gained 7% with the World index (MSCI) up more than double that at 15.7%. Five years ago, we were dealing with COVID. Markets have been robust over that period, with all indices in double figures, and the US Nasdaq and S&P 500 doubling. Ten years ago, we were witnessing the European migrant crisis, a slowdown in China, and a slump in commodity prices. Since then, markets have more than doubled in the US, Germany & Japan, with the ASX gaining 76%. Fifteen years ago, we were still recovering from the GFC, as the US Federal Reserve was considering a second round of quantitative easing to bolster the economy. Since then, nearly all markets have doubled, with China being the notable exception. Twenty years ago, Hurricane Katrina pushed up energy prices, and Israel withdrew from Gaza. As for equity markets, returns have been robust, with the NASDAQ nearly up 10 times. Despite short-term volatility, history continues to show that a long-term investment horizon rewards patience and discipline. Structural trends, such as AI, combined with global economic resilience, support a positive outlook for diversified portfolios. |
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| Core & ETF September 2025 Review As always, performances were mixed throughout the month. The ASX fell 1.38% for the month, and the financial year was up 3.59% for the 3 months. While for the calendar year (9 months) ASX was up 8.46%. CORE Watchlist 30 ASX-listed stocks from our CORE Watchlist. The best performers for the month were Rio Tinto (RIO), up 5.68% on an improved commodity price outlook, particularly copper. NAB increased 3.2% after hitting new ALL TIME HIGHS during the month on multiple days. These are the new highs since November 2007. NextDC (NXT) increased 2,55% after gaining 13.7% last month. The increasing demand for data centres will see increased earnings in the coming years. The worst performers for the month were Santos (STO), down 16% after the takeover deal was called off. This led to Woodside (WDS) being down 12.8% as energy prices softened during the month. Sonic Health was down 10.85% due to continued weakness in the health sector. Over the financial year (3 months), the best performers were Seek.com (SEK), up 18.5%, as they continue to benefit from the recent profit results. NXT up 16.7% and BHP 15.7% due to higher commodity prices. Other notable gainers were Westpac +15.1%, ANZ +13.9% Coles (COL) +12.8% NAB +12.2% and Orora (ORA) +10% The worst performers were SHL down 21.1%, CSL down 18.9% and Amcor (AMC) down 14.5% due to concerns re-tariffs. Over the calendar year (9 months), the best performers were Brambles (BXB), up 28.9% on positive profit results, Wesfarmers (WES) up 28.6% on good profit results and strong consumer demand and Orica (ORI), up 27.5% on strong profit results and future guidance. Other notable gainers for nine months were SEK +26% JB Hi Fi (JBH) +25% Coles (COL) +23%, Telstra (TLS), +20%, The worst performers were CSL, down 27.6% on weaker sentiment for healthcare and tariff impacts., SHL, down 20.6%, and South 32(S32), down 19.4% as some of their commodity mix has suffered. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS (ETF) As part of our research, we cover approximately 80 ETFs. The best and worst performers for the period(s) were as follows. The best performers for the month are Battery Tech and Lithium (ACDC), up 10.5%, were also among the best three for the last two month as the switch into energy continues. Asia (IAA) up 9.9% as a rally in Chinese technology stocks continues, and Global Semiconductors (SEMI) up 9.8% as demand for computer chips remains strong. Other notable gainer for the month was Korea (IKO) +8.3%, Global Artificial Intelligence (GXAI) +7.5% & China (IZZ). The worst three were China New Economy (CNEW) down 3.3% after having a strong previous few months. Global Health (IXJ) is down 1.4% due to continued weakness in the healthcare sector, attributed to tariffs and US health policy. Aust Equal Weighted Shares (MVW) down 1.3% as the ASX fell 1.38% Over the financial year (3 months), the best performers were ACDC, up 31.4%, and Australian Resources (MVR), up 19.1%, on the back of stronger commodities, including gold and silver. CNEW up 19.3%. The worst three were Global Cybersecurity (HACK), down 2.5% due to some profit taking after a strong 6 months. IXJ down 1% and Europe (IEU) down 1% after a strong few months. Over the calendar year (9 months) the best performers were Korea (IKO), up 44.3% as it continues its strong run after political instability improved. ACDC up 33.2% & IAA up 26.8% Other notable gainers were CNEW +20.1%, China (IZZ) +20%, Europe (IEU) +16.3%, Asia (IAA) +15.4% World ex-US (VEU) +15.2%, MVR +15.2%. The worst performers were Global Cloud Computing (CLDD), down 7.7%, after a strong rally over the last couple of years, IXJ wasdown 5% and Global Robotics and AI (RBTZ) up 0.7%. |
| US Govt Shutdown A US government shutdown looks set to happen from tonight. According to the Bell Potter Coppo report The table below lists each of the six prior Federal Government shutdowns that lasted longer than a day, based on a list from Wikipedia. For each one, we show how the S&P 500 performed following the start of each shutdown. While performance over the following week and month was mixed, three, six, and twelve months later, the S&P 500 was higher five out of six times. Not only were returns generally positive, but they were also significantly better than the average for all periods. One comment we have heard multiple times about the market heading into the upcoming shutdown is that with the market trading right near all-time highs, investors are ignoring the risks of a shutdown. As the table illustrates, though, leading up to four of the six prior shutdowns, the S&P 500 was within 2% of an all-time high, and yet returns were generally positive regardless. • While a government shutdown lasting longer than a few days would surely be problematic for many federal employees whose paychecks would be delayed, for most other Americans, the only impact of a government shutdown is the endless coverage of it in the news. • So, maybe rather than ignoring the ‘risks’ of a shutdown, investors realize that the idea of a shutdown is mostly all bark and little bite. |
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| Commodities Ord Minnett has reviewed its commodity price assumptions as we head into the end of the September quarter where commodities have largely outperformed our expectations, albeit only modestly, with gold (again) being the obvious exception. In our view, markets over the period have held up mainly due to supply-side issues. The global economy is still feeling the effects of the trade war waged by the US against its trading partners although the nominal level of the tariff imposts now appears to be lower than first feared. Nevertheless, global trade in goods has shrunk and the world economy has grown at a slower rate than it otherwise would. Adding to downward pressure on demand has been a series of soft activity data across most major economies that has spurred most central banks into an easing cycle to support growth. Of particular relevance to Australia is China, where Beijing has embarked on what it has coined an ‘anti-involution’ campaign – the aim being to end the fierce self-destructive competition wrought by cutthroat margins and overcapacity that eventually leads to diminishing returns and stagnation across key industries – but so far it appears to be more style than substance in terms of managing overproduction and promoting industry consolidation. Despite this global backdrop, supply-side issues have allowed commodity prices to be supported. Commodity price forecasts Most of our price estimates have been increased for the 2025 and 2026 years, but we highlight some key changes to our 2026 estimates: • Copper – up 11%, reflecting the above-mentioned supply issues which led to a 4% cut in our forecast for market supply tonnage in 2026; • Iron ore – up 5%, underpinned by relatively solid demand from China and higher-cost ore supply being withdrawn from the market; • Coking coal – up 11%, as current prices are not realistic given steel demand, in our view; • Lithium spodumene – up 25%, reflecting a more balanced supply/demand equation. Stock choices Ord Minnett maintain preference for Rio Tinto (RIO, Accumulate) over BHP (BHP, Accumulate) in the large diversified miners, given the former’s volume growth prospects and cheaper multiples, and prefer base metals over bulk commodities, e.g. Alcoa (AAI, Buy) in aluminium. Our favoured gold exposures include Newmont Mining (NEM, Buy) and Capricorn Metals (CMM, Buy). Our updated commodity prices forecasts are detailed in Table 1. |
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| Exchange Traded Fund Series An Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) is a type of investment fund that is traded on stock exchanges, much like individual stocks. An ETF: Holds a collection of assets such as stocks, bonds, commodities, or a mix. Tracks an index, sector, commodity, or other asset (e.g., ASX 200, S&P 500, gold). Trades like a stock, meaning you can buy and sell it throughout the trading day at market prices. Other Features Diversification: One ETF can give exposure to dozens or hundreds of companies. Liquidity: Easy to buy/sell on the exchange. Lower Fees: Typically cheaper than actively managed funds. Transparency: Holdings are usually published daily. Dividends: Many ETFs pay out dividends from the underlying assets. Index ETFs: Track a market index (e.g., ASX 200, S&P 500). Sector or Thematic ETFs: Focus on specific industries (e.g., tech, healthcare). Bond ETFs: Invest in government or corporate bonds. Commodity ETFs: Track commodities like gold or oil. International ETFs: Provide exposure to global markets. Smart Beta ETFs: blends index with active strategies like quality, volatility, dividends, or value—rather than traditional market capitalisation. The ETF market has grown very quickly in terms of dollars, with a 35% increase in the last year to approx $300bn (similar market cap to CBA) and also a rapid growth of products on the ASX with over 400 different ETFs. We currently assess 80. 3. iShares Asia 50 ETF (IAA) provides passive exposure to the 50 largest companies in Asia, primarily from more developed markets, including China, Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan. The ETF aims to track the performance of the S&P Asia 50 Index, offering investors a way to diversify internationally and express a regional view. The fund is unhedged against currency fluctuations, meaning exchange rate movements may influence its returns. As of 31 August 2025:Number of Holdings: 68 companiesPrice-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: 14Dividend Yield: 2.17%Return on Equity (ROE): 19.97%Management Fee: 0.29% (reduced from 0.50% as of 29 October 2024). The top country allocations are: • China 42.1% • Taiwan 32.8% • South Korea 15.2% • Hong Kong 5.2% • Singapore 4.4% The top sector exposures are: • Information Technology: 44.6% • Financials: 17.9% • Consumer Discretionary 17.2% • Communications 16.6% Over the last year, up 33%, over the last 3 years, 16.80% per year. Started in Sept 2008. Previous in series 1. VanEck Global Quality (QUAL/QHAL) 2. VanEck Global Value (VLUE) |
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| Financial Planning Snippets PLEASE BE VIGILANT regarding financial scamming. If anyone is requesting financial information from you (via phone, email, text, or social media), please contact us first or ask them for their ABN. Super Guarantee (SGC) for employees increases to 12% from 1/7/25. Concessional super contributions maximum of $30k Commonwealth Seniors Health Care card has seen the income limit increase to $158,440 (couple) $99,025 (single). If you are of Age Pension age and don’t have the card, please let us know. Macquarie Cash accounts – IF CHANGING YOUR PHONE, YOU NEED TO DEACTIVATE AUTHENTICATOR AND SWITCH TOTHE NEW PHONE |
| Other Stories Macquarie reduced interest rates after the RBA cut. CMA 2%, Accelerator 3.9%. – NSW Water allocations released today. Murray General 18% (increased by 8%), Murrumbidgee General 23% (increased 5%) and Lachlan General 82% (no increase). |
| Broker Target Price Changes Target Prices should be viewed as a compass (the general direction) rather than a GPS destination. Ord Minnett BHP increased from $42.50 to $45 Rio Tinto (RIO) increased from $121 (equal highest broker) to $127 (highest broker) South 32 (S32) increased from $3.95 (highest broker) to $4 (still highest broker) Morgans Seek.com (SEK) increased from $30 to $30.80 Morgan Stanley Macquarie Amcor (AMC) decreased from $17.46 to $17.44 NextDC (NXT) decreased from $22.30 (highest broker) to $20.90 Bell Potter/Citigroup UBS Tracking changes for 2025 Upgrades 300 Downgrades 242 |
| Core Watchlist Index (changes since last Not So) The CORE Watchlist is a collection of 30 Australian shares, predominantly “Blue Chip”. We obtain research from up to 6 brokers on each share. Each broker provides a Target Price (value in 12 months) which then provides us with an average for each stock. We then compare that average to the current price as a percentage. IE Macquarie price $176.95 Av. Target Price $205.96= 85.9% (meaning 14.1% upside over next 12 months) + income 4.35% (including franking). To get the CORE Index we take the average across the 30 stocks. This provides us with a market average as there are up to 80 teams of analysts providing the research and target prices. The CORE Watchlist stocks represent more than 55% of the ASX 200 and so provide us with a good indicator of the market value. When it’s at 100% then the market is fully priced. We have seen that when the index is below 90%, then it’s good buying, but that doesn’t happen very often. Should you have any questions, please let me know. The Core index increased from 94.50% to 95.03%. If we removed the 4 banks, the index falls to 90.82% Overall Earnings Per Share (EPS) FY25 increased from 2.45% to 2.51% FY26 increased from 6.21% to 6.41% Most expensive – CBA 141.1% (176.5% highest ever). Least expensive – CSL 70.3%. The CORE Watchlist has 7 (7) stocks trading above 100%; they are; ANZ CBA JBH NAB RIO WBC WES lowest number ever is 0, highest is 15. While 7 (6) is trading below 85% (the highest is 18, and the lowest is one). AMC CSL LLC RMD S32 SHL STO (Figures in brackets are last Not So). STOCKS TRADING BELOW ALL BROKER FORECASTS ARE AS FOLLOWS; (it has been a handy indicator in the past). 12 out of the 30 CORE stocks are trading below the lowest broker target price. Highest 24. Lowest is 2. ALL current price $69.56 Broker range $70 to $77 AMC current price $12.31 Broker range $14.20 to $18.25 CSL current price $198.80 Broker range $258 to $300 LLC current price $5.44 Broker range $5.90 to $7.12 NXT current price $16.89 Broker range $18.00 to $22.10 ORI current price $21.29 Broker range $22.41 to $24.76 RMD current price $41.36 Broker range $47.86 to $49 SEK current price $28.59 Broker range $30.80 to $32.50 SHL current price $21.32 Broker range $24.50 to $29.40 STO current price $6.76 Broker range $7 to $8.88 WDS current price $22.85 Broker range $24.85 to $29.60 WOW current price $26.47 Broker range $28.25 to $33 Added Removed S32 |
| Banking Index (changes since last Not So) Like the CORE Watchlist index, the Banking index is the four major banks’ average target price based on research from up to 6 brokers. The percentage below 100% is the potential upside over the next 12 months (not including income). If at or over 100%, then this indicates the Banks are fully priced. The banking index increased from 122.3% to 122.4%. Non-banks at a more reasonable 90.7% Based on today’s bank prices, the table below shows the estimated dividends (c) and yield. PLUS FRANKING. FY 25% FY 26% FY27% ANZ 161.00 4.84% 162.80 4.89% 163.8 4.92% CBA 485.00 2.90% 501.40 2.90% 518.2 3.10% NAB 170.00 3.86% 171.20 3.89% 167.8 3.81% WBC 152.00 3.92% 155.00 4.00% 151.4 3.91% MQG 650.00 2.96% 739.50 3.37% 801.25 3.65% CBA yield is below all the others. Dividend expectations for BHP and RIO. The forecasts below are for the full year. Plus franking. Please note RIO is Calendar Year (CY). Cents per share (CPS). FY 25% FY 26% FY 27% BHP 171.00 4.12% 176.60 4.26% 182.80 4.41% RIO 560.80 4.57% 539.60 4.40% 583.00 4.76% |
| Other Indicators (changes since last Not So) US VIX (Fear) Index decreased from 16.74 to 16.28. Insidethe normal range. Normal is 10-17. Will see if this spikes with the with the Govt shut down (depends how long it lasts). Iron Ore decreased from $105.95 to $103.55. The average expectation for 2025 is $98.3. Copper increased from $4.73 to $4.85. It reached an all-time high of $5.8955 on July 8. Gold increased from $3778 to $3891. New ATH $3891 today. AUD/USD increased from 65.41c to 65.98c. Asian markets – UP US 10-year Bonds decreased from 4.19% to 4.15%. 2-year rate 3.61%. 30 year rate below 5% at 4.73%. German 10 year Bonds decreased from 2.78% to 2.72%. Japanese 10 year Bonds remained at 1.65% . Highest for 18 years was 1.675%. 30-year Bond hit an ATH of 3.25% Aussie Bonds 10 year Bonds increased from 4.29% to 4.34%. Recent high 4.95%. Oil prices decreased from $65.24 to $62.53. OPEC increasing production The price of tungsten in China remained at $593mtu. The European price range increased from $570mtu to $650mtu to $580mtu to $650mtu. Prices are at an all-time high due to the Chinese continued export ban. |
| This Week & Next Week Last, “Not So” opened in 7 Aust states (excl NT), 9 US states, Bulgaria, Sweden & UK. This week – Out office – Friday (Ute Muster) Next week – In office – October reviews. Southern Highlands/Sydney/South Coast road trip Nov 7 to Nov 14. Scott knee operation December 1. PO BOX 149 Deniliquin NSW 2710 125 End St, Deniliquin, NSW 2710 Ph. 03 58950100 Fax 03 58950101 Mobile 0412113524 scottm@provincialwealth.com.au kevinh@provincialwealth.com.au chrisp@provincialwealth.com.au maddyl@provincialwealth.com.au karaw@provincialwealth.com.au |
Top Stories
| On Wednesday, August 13 2025, the ASX fell 54 points to finish at 8827. This is after hitting a new all-time high yesterday, closing at 8880.80. This is the 14th ATH in 2025. Today, CBA released their results, which were $10bn profit and a slight increase in the dividend; however, this wasn’t enough for the market, which had previously pushed the price to a point where CBA is the most expensive bank in the world. CBA fell 5.4%, taking the other banks with it. As we have noted for some time, the banks are trading well above the analysts’ forecasts, so we are not surprised by the pullback today. The turnover in CBA shares was a large $750m, one of the year’s largest trading days. We will see what the analyst says tomorrow, with all six having SELL recommendations. In this reporting season, we’ve seen several stocks take a hit once they delivered their results. Over the last week, on releasing results, QBE fell 8%, Computershare (CPU) fell 4%, AGL fell 12%, JB HiFi (JBH) fell 8% & CBA fell 5.4%. This would suggest that if the company doesn’t deliver above expectations, you could see some selling, especially as valuations are at the higher end of normal. As suggested last month, the market might be switching from banks to resources. Since 30/6, CBA down 8% and Aust Bank ETF (MVB) down 4% while BHP up 13%, Woodside (WDS) up 13%, RIO 10% and Aust Resources ETF (MVR) up 10%. US markets have taken the uptick in inflation well, as it’s not as bad as feared and it could allow the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates next month. The RBA cut rates yesterday in Australia to 3.6% with the likelihood of more to come. We will likely see more volatility in the coming weeks. We are happy for you to share our Not So Daily Bulletin with family and friends, and if we can help them, we are also happy to chat. |
| RBA Interest Rates As predicted by Kevin “interest rate whisperer” Hanson, the RBA cut interest rates by 0.25% to 3.6%. The RBA sees inflation running around target, but has revised its growth forecasts down again. Its forecasts assume that the cash rate will continue to “follow a gradual easing path,” implying that without further easing, growth and inflation will be lower and unemployment higher. AMP’s Shane Oliver expects the RBA to cut again in November, February, and May, taking the cash rate to 2.85%. The ongoing rate-cutting cycle should help underpin a modest increase in Australian economic growth to around 1.8%yoy by year-end, but with the tariff threat posing some downside risk. The media tends to focus on the benefits or costs for mortgagees when interest rates move. However, only 35% of Australian households have a mortgage. 32% have no mortgage, and 33% rent. While an interest rate cut is suitable for those who have debt, there is never any commentary on how a saver just took a drop in their income, as they will receive less interest. |
| US Inflation & Tariffs US inflation results released last night were as expected. Headline was up 0.2% or 2.7% over the year, and the more important CORE was up 0.3% or 3.1% over the year. While this sees inflation moving up and above the 2% target from the US Federal Reserve, the market thinks it’s low enough for the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at the next meeting on September 17. The main inflation component has been services (blue), which has moved sideways for the last couple of months, while goods inflation (green) ticked up for the 2nd month due to tariffs. Most economists say companies are still running their pre-tariff inventory, so the tariffs’ effects are yet to show. Additionally, the changing decisions regarding tariffs have seen many not instigated until this month. So there are more tariff impacts to come, but that could also dilute the effect, as not all are happening at once. China’s tariff decision was postponed another 90 days yesterday. The US budget deficit figure was released last night. The July deficit increased to $219bn after showing a surplus in June. The tariffs increased to $21bn, with most being paid by the company at this stage. |
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| Aussie Reporting Season Results are coming out on the following dates for the CORE Watchlist companies 30 July Rio Tinto (RIO) reported resilient half-year results with $4.5 billion net profit, supported by strong copper and aluminium performance despite lower iron ore prices and cyclone disruptions. 1 Aug ResMed (RMD) delivered a 37% increase in net income to $1.4 billion for FY25, driven by 10% revenue growth and expanding margins across its sleep and digital health businesses 11 Aug JB Hi-Fi (JBH) reported strong FY25 results with net income of $459.9 million, driven by solid sales and a final dividend of $1.83 per share. 13 Aug Commonwealth Bank (CBA) posted a record $10.25 billion cash profit, up 4% from FY24, supported by lending growth and a final dividend of $2.60 per share. Computershare (CPU) delivered a 15% increase in Management EPS and boosted its dividend by 14%, reflecting strong performance across its core businesses 14 Aug ORA TLS WBC 16 Aug SEK 18 Aug LLC NAB 19 Aug BHP CSL WDS 20 Aug TCL STO 21 Aug BXB GMG SHL 26 Aug COL 27 Aug WOW 28 Aug S32 WES |
| Financial Planning Snippets PLEASE BE VIGILANT regarding financial scamming. If anyone is requesting financial information from you (via phone, email, text, or social media), please contact us first or ask them for their ABN. Super Guarantee (SGC) for employees increases to 12% from 1/7/25 Concessional super contributions maximum of $30k Commonwealth Seniors Health Care card has seen the income limit increase to $158,440 (couple) $99,025 (single). If you are of Age Pension age and don’t have the card, please let us know. |
| Non-concessional Contributions (NCC) NCC are after-tax contributions made to your superannuation fund, and they play a key role in boosting retirement savings. For the 2025–26 financial year (FY26), the annual non-concessional contributions cap remains at $120,000 There is also a bring-forward arrangement, allowing up to $360,000 in non-concessional contributions over a three-year period, provided certain conditions are met. Those conditions have had changes made for this financial year as shown in the table below. If your super balance was below $2m as of 30/6/25, you can still make an NCC. This has increased from $1.9m. If your super balance is below $1.88m you can make a contribution up to $240k (2 years bring forward). This has increased from $1.78m If your super balance is below $1.76m you can make a contribution of up to $360k (3 years bring forward). This has increased from $1.66m If your balance equals or exceeds $2 million at the end of the previous financial year, your non-concessional contributions cap is reduced to $0, meaning you cannot make further non-concessional contributions. This assists in growing super balances and generating future tax-free income, where $2m is now the amount that can be used to start a tax-free pension (Account-Based Pension). The NCC also assists in the re-contribution strategy as we are able to withdraw from pension and re-contribute as NCC, which is considered a tax-free component. This assists with future estate planning. |
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| Other Stories – ETFs had a record monthly inflow of $5.9bn. – Tyro payments received an unsolicited takeover bid. |
| Broker Target Price changes Target Prices should be viewed as a compass (the general direction) rather than a GPS destination. Ord Minnett JB Hi-Fi (JBH) increased from $89 to $97 Morgans CBA decreased from $97.49 (lowest broker) to $97.40 (still lowest broker). JBH increased from $92 to $95 Morgan Stanley BHP decreased from $44 (highest broker) to $43.50 JBH increased from $73.60 (lowest broker) to $83.40 (still lowest broker) South 32 (S32) decreased from $3.55 to $3.45 Macquarie JBH increased from $112 to $118 Woodside (WDS) increased from $24 to $27.50 Bell Potter/Citigroup Brambles (BXB) increased from $20.15 to $23.60 UBS JBH increased from $95 to $112 South 32 (S32) decreased from $3.20 (lowest broker) to $3.10 (still lowest broker) Tracking changes for 2025 Upgrades 207 Downgrades 186 |
| Core Watchlist Index (changes since last Not So) The CORE Watchlist is a collection of 30 Australian shares, predominantly “Blue Chip”. We obtain research from up to 6 brokers on each share. Each broker provides a Target Price (value in 12 months) which then provides us with an average for each stock. We then compare that average to the current price as a percentage. IE Macquarie price $176.95 Av. Target Price $205.96= 85.9% (meaning 14.1% upside over next 12 months) + income 4.35% (including franking). To get the CORE Index we take the average across the 30 stocks. This provides us with a market average as there are up to 80 teams of analysts providing the research and target prices. The CORE Watchlist stocks represent more than 55% of the ASX 200 and so provide us with a good indicator of the market value. When it’s at 100% then the market is fully priced. We have seen that when the index is below 90%, then it’s good buying, but that doesn’t happen very often. Should you have any questions, please let me know. The Core index decreased from 100.12% to 99.66%. Fell below 100% for the first time in 5 days. If we removed the 4 banks, the index falls to 95.62% Overall Earnings Per Share (EPS) FY25 decreased from 1.13% to 0.95% FY26 increased from 8.14% to 8.26% Most expensive – CBA 154.6% (176.5% highest ever). Least expensive – NextDC (NXT) 74.2% The CORE Watchlist has 12 (10) stocks trading above 100%; they are; ANZ BXB CBA CPU JBH NAB RIO TCL TLS WBC WDS WES, lowest number ever is 0, highest is 14. While 3 (5) is trading below 85% (the highest is 18, and the lowest is one). CSL LLC NXT (Figures in brackets are last Not So). STOCKS TRADING BELOW ALL BROKER FORECASTS ARE AS FOLLOWS; (it has been a handy indicator in the past). 7 out of the 30 CORE stocks are trading below the lowest broker target price. Highest 24. Lowest is 2. ALL current price $69.70 Broker range $70 to $76 CSL current price $265.53 Broker range $303.70 to $347.30 LLC current price $5.42 Broker range $5.85 to $7.79 NXT current price $14.53 Broker range $18.00 to $22.10 RMD current price $43.55 Broker range $47.86 to $49 S32 current price $3.06 Broker range $3.20 to $4.10 SEK current price $25.07 Broker range $25.50 to $30.10 Added ALL Removed BHP |
| Banking Index (changes since last Not So) Like the CORE Watchlist index, the Banking index is the four major banks’ average target price based on research from up to 6 brokers. The percentage below 100% is the potential upside over the next 12 months (not including income). If at or over 100%, then this indicates the Banks are fully priced. The banking index decreased from 128.2% to 126.4%. It hit a near-record 130.1% yesterday. Based on today’s bank prices, the table below shows the estimated dividends (c) and yield. PLUS FRANKING. FY 25 % FY 26 % FY27 % ANZ 164.00 5.15% 162.00 5.08% 162.2 5.09% CBA 484.20 2.86% 499.60 2.86% 515.4 3.05% NAB 170.00 4.45% 170.20 4.46% 165.4 4.33% WBC 152.00 4.48% 155.20 4.58% 148.6 4.38% MQG 650.00 3.04% 739.50 3.46% 801.25 3.75% CBA yield is below all the others. Dividend expectations for BHP and RIO. The forecasts below are for the full year. Plus franking. Please note RIO is Calendar Year (CY). Cents per share (CPS). FY25 % FY26 % FY27 % BHP 153.83 3.69% 155.50 3.73% 167.00 4.00% RIO 541.40 4.59% 538.60 4.57% 563.40 4.78% |
| Other Indicators (changes since last Not So) US VIX (Fear) Index decreased from 16.77 to 14.73. Fell into the normal range. Normal is 10-17. Iron Ore increased from $101.95 to $104.40. The average expectation for 2025 is $98.3. Copper increased from $4.42 to $4.52. ALL TIME HIGH of $5.8955 on July 8.Gold decreased from $3446 to $3398. ATH $3509.90. AUD/USD increased from 65.11c to 65.3c. Asian markets – UP with Japan hitting new highs. US 10-year Bonds increased from 4.25% to 4.28%. 2-year rate 3.73%. 30 year rate back below 5% at 4.86%. German 10 year Bonds increased from 2.66% to 2.73%. Japanese 10 year Bonds increased from 1.49% to 1.52%. Highest for 16 years was 1.601%. Aussie Bonds 10 year Bonds decreased from 4.25% to 4.23%. Recent high 4.95%. Oil prices decreased from $64.80 to $63.17. Tungsten—China price increased from $463mtu to $473mtu. The European price range remained at $475-$495mtu (highest price for 13 years). |
| This week & next week Last, “Not So” opened in 7 Aust states (excl NT), 6 US states (California, Massachusetts, Colorado, Virginia, New Jersey & Ohio ), Bulgaria and Sweden. This week – In Office – August reviews Next week – In Office -apart from Tuesday (Wagga) – August reviews. |
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