| Top Stories |
| It’s pleasing to write number 700 on a day when the ASX jumped more in five years & the S&P500 had its best day since 2008. On Thursday, April 10, 2025, the ASX jumped 335 points to finish at 7710, up 4.5% for the day. However, for all the volatility, the market is only up 42 points or 0.5% for the week. (What’s all the fuss about). The S&P500 jumped 9.5%, its best day since 2008 and its ninth-highest day ever. The NASDAQ was even better, up 12%. Here are some individual stock gains from today from our preferred stable: HNDQ +13%, SEMI 12%, QHAL 11%, NXT 9%, S32 9%, NDQ 8%, GXAI 8%, RBTZ 8%, GMG 7%, and HACK 7%. US Markets initially opened down as the tariff pressure was building. At 1 pm US time, Goldman Sachs issued a research note saying the US was going into a recession. This, plus the 10-year Bond rate had pushed higher than 4.5%, were seen as the catalysts for President Trump to state at 2.10 pm saying tariffs would be reduced to 10% for all countries and paused for 90 days while negotiations could be held with individual countries. However, China’s tariffs would increase to 125% from 104% and remain in place. Thankfully, President Trump has been persuaded to change the tack, as it was leading to a US and probably a global recession. HOWEVER, the tariffs are only paused, and the other tariffs remain in place: China 125%, everybody 10%, Canada and Mexico 25%, and Steel and Aluminium 25%. So, these will still impact the US and, to a lesser extent, the global economy. It doesn’t remove the uncertainty, but it gives all parties some wriggle room, which wasn’t apparent earlier in the week. This change has shown the market’s bottom unless President Trump U-turns back to the same policy, which is unlikely as it was universally condemned. I think the tariffs will be reduced from here. Seventy-plus countries have contacted the US to address the trade issues. Unfortunately, this event will impact consumer and business confidence. It’s likely to delay some business investment decisions and change buying habits. All of these will impact companies’ value and profitability. The question is, for how long and by how much? The US quarterly reporting season starts at the end of this week, so this will give the first insight into any impact. We will likely see some volatility but smaller % moves in the coming weeks. I have updated the CORE and Banking graph below to reflect today’s movements in the ASX 200. Core is still trading below 90%. I’m on the road next week. This will be the last Not So until after Easter. Wishing everyone a safe and Happy Easter We are happy for you to share our Not So Daily Bulletin with family and friends, and if we can help them, we are also happy to chat. |
 |
| Staying Invested I thought I would leave this story in from yesterday as today was one of the best days that, if missed, can have an impact on your overall return, as can be seen in the table below. Our approach is to have a long-term strategy and stick to it. There is an old saying: “Time in the market is better than trying to time the market.” This means staying invested and not trying to trade the market. It helps cope with market volatility in uncertain times (like now). As mentioned, things could get a lot worse the longer President Trump sticks with his tariff policy. There is potential for the markets to fall further. HOWEVER, if a change in policy occurs, markets could rally strongly, and if you are trying to trade the market, you may miss out. The biggest days up and down in percentage turns usually occur during these periods (GFC, COVID, Euro debt crisis). The chart below from Blackrock emphasises the approach of staying invested. If $100,000 were invested in the S&P 500 in 2005, it would have grown to $717,000. If the investor tried to trade the market but missed the best 5 UP days, the value would be $452,000. If the best 10 UP days were missed, the value is $328,000. So, the story’s moral is to stick to the long-term strategy as it works over time. And, as one client said today, don’t read the financial section; stick to the sports section of the news. |
 |
| Financial Planning Snippets PLEASE BE VIGILANT regarding financial scamming. If anyone is requesting financial information from you (via phone, email, text, or social media), please contact us first or ask them for their ABN. Super Guarantee (SGC) for employees increases to 11.5% from 1/7/24 Concessional super contributions increases from $27.5k to $30k from 1/7/24 Commonwealth Seniors Health Care card has seen the income limit increase to $152k(couple) $95.4k (single). If you are of Age Pension age and don’t have the card, please let us know. |
| Broker Target Price changes Target Prices should be viewed as a compass (the general direction) rather than a GPS destination. Ord Minnett Morgans Morgan Stanley Santos (STO) decreased from $7.46 to $6.95 Macquarie Bell Potter/Citigroup UBS Tracking changes for 2025 Upgrades 103 Downgrades 90 |
| Core Watchlist Index (changes since last Not So) The CORE Watchlist is a collection of 30 Australian shares, predominantly “Blue Chip”. We obtain research from up to 6 brokers on each share. Each broker provides a Target Price (value in 12 months) which then provides us with an average for each stock. We then compare that average to the current price as a percentage. IE Macquarie price $176.95 Av. Target Price $205.96= 85.9% (meaning 14.1% upside over next 12 months) + income 4.35% (including franking). To get the CORE Index we take the average across the 30 stocks. This provides us with a market average as there are up to 80 teams of analysts providing the research and target prices. The CORE Watchlist stocks represent more than 55% of the ASX 200 and so provide us with a good indicator of the market value. When it’s at 100% then the market is fully priced. We have seen that when the index is below 90%, then it’s good buying, but that doesn’t happen very often. Should you have any questions, please let me know. The Core index decreased from 84.16% to 88.14% (under 90%). This is usually a good entry point. Overall Earnings Per Share (EPS) FY25 decreased from 3.28% to 3.05% lowest and likely to go lower in the coming weeks. FY26 decreased from 9.09% to 8.86% Most expensive – CBA 143.8% Least expensive – NextDC (NXT) 55.9% The CORE Watchlist has 7 (2) stocks trading above 100%; they are; CBA JBH NAB TCL TLS WBC WES, lowest number ever is 0, highest is 14. While 15 (17) is trading below 85% (the highest is 18, and the lowest is one). ALL BHP CSL GMG LLC MQG NEC NXT ORA ORI RMD S32 SEK STO WDS (Figures in brackets are last Not So). STOCKS TRADING BELOW ALL BROKER FORECASTS ARE AS FOLLOWS; (it has been a handy indicator in the past). 18 out of the 30 CORE stocks are trading below the lowest broker target price. Highest 24. Lowest is 2. ALL current price $63.13 Broker range $73 to $84 AMC current price $14.72 Broker range $15.25 to $19 BHP current price $36.00 Broker range $39.50 to $48.10 COL current price $20.84 Broker range $20.90 to $22.35 CSL current price $241.78 Broker range $310 to $360.30 GMG current price $27.80 Broker range $33.50 to $42.40 LLC current price $5.38 Broker range $6.30 to $7.50 NEC current price $1.40 Broker range $1.65 to $2 NXT current price $11.03 Broker range $18.70 to $21.20 ORA current price $1.76 Broker range $2.15 to $2.57 ORI current price $15.91 Broker range $18.85 to $21.50 RIO current price $110.59 Broker range $116 tom $130 S32 current price $2.76 Broker range $3.90 to $4.50 SEK current price $21.04 Broker range $26.75 to $30.10 SHL current price $25.20 Broker range $26.50 to $32.80 STO current price $5.56 Broker range $7.10 to $8.95 WDS current price $20.05 Broker range $20.50 to $30.25 |
| Banking Index (changes since last Not So) Like the CORE Watchlist index, the Banking index is the four major banks’ average target price based on research from up to 6 brokers. The percentage below 100% is the potential upside over the next 12 months (not including income). If at or over 100%, then this indicates the Banks are fully priced. The Banking index decreased from 108% to 112.5%. only ANZ is below 100%. Based on today’s bank prices, the table below shows the estimated dividends (c) and yield. PLUS FRANKING. FY 24 % FY 25 % FY26 % ANZ 166.00 6.05% 166.40 6.07% 168.2 6.13% CBA 475.00 3.07% 480.00 3.11% 488.4 3.16% NAB 169.00 5.00% 170.00 5.03% 170.2 5.03% WBC 166.00 5.42% 155.40 5.08% 156.6 5.12% MQG 645.00 3.58% 635.25 3.52% 739.25 4.10% Dividend expectations for BHP and RIO. The forecasts below are for the full year. Plus franking. Please note RIO is Calendar Year (CY). Cents per share (CPS). FY24 % FY25 % FY26 % cps cps cps BHP 219.00 6.08% 159.00 4.42% 180.00 5.00% RIO 617.00 5.58% 655.00 5.92% 640.50 5.79% |
| Other Indicators (changes since last Not So) US VIX (Fear) Index decreased from 52.33 to 33.62. Which is still at very high levels. Iron Ore increased from $94.90 to $96.80. The average expectation for 2025 is $99.80 Copper increased from $4.13 to $4.45. ALL TIME HIGH of $5.26 last week. Massive jump after recent sell off. Gold increased from $3033 to $3137. ATH today of $3196.60 AUD/USD decreased from 59.68c to 61.93c. Big jump today. 59.15c recent low.. CHN/USD Yuan decreased from $7.35 to $7.32. China has been devaluing its currency to lessen the impact of the tariffs. Asian markets – STRONGLY HIGHER US 10-year Bonds decreased from 4.42% to 4.30%. It fell to 3.9% last week, but has pushed higher. 2-year rate 3.90. German 10 year Bonds decreased from 2.63% to 2.61%. Japanese 10 year Bonds increased from 1.27% to 1.37%. Highest for 16 years was 1.59%. Aussie Bonds 10 year Bonds decreased from 4.37% to 4.30%. Recent high 4.95% Oil prices increased from $57.23 to $61.81. Energy prices bounced sharply. Tungsten—China price remained at $358mtu . The European price range remained at $350mtu-$370mtu. Not included in the US tariffs, therefore exempt. |
| This week & next week Last, “Not So” opened in 7 Aust states (excl Tas), 6 US states (California, Massachusetts, Colorado, Connecticut Ohio & Virginia), Bulgaria, Sweden, Italy, Iran, This week – In Office – Next week – On the road all week – Central and Northern NSW Contact details PO BOX 149 Deniliquin NSW 2710 125 End St Deniliquin NSW 2710 Mobile 0412113524 scottm@provincialwealth.com.au kevinh@provincialwealth.com.au chrisp@provincialwealth.com.au maddyl@provincialwealth.com.au |
Regardless of where you are in Australia, we offer you the best financial planning and advisory services. Feel free to call us today with any question you may have.
People, Big Picture Framework, Quality Services and Value for Money!
We are strong believers in integrity, honesty, professionalism and respect! Our aim is to foster healthy relationships with our clients that last a lifetime.
